SuperData Launches New Forecasting Tool to Give Publishers and Developers Competitive Edge

The Arcade Forecaster evaluates performance across revenue, monthly active users and in-game spending

The Forecaster user interface

The Forecaster user interface

SuperData, a Nielsen company, has added a powerful new tool, Arcade Forecaster, to its market-leading Arcade solution. The new offering tracks and evaluates the performance of existing and upcoming digital games across several key metrics including revenue, monthly active users and in-game spending to SuperData Arcade. Arcade Forecaster also gives publishers, developers and investors a bird’s-eye view of the broader macro-level trends driving the interactive entertainment industry as well as market-level details for the PC, console and mobile segments.

As part of SuperData Arcade, subscribers can access the most up-to-date view of the premium console segment which is widely considered to be an important health indicator for the industry as a whole. Publishers and developers can also access Arcade Forecaster for a 12-month performance outlook for major digital game franchises, giving them the opportunity to monitor top competitors and games gaining popularity, as well as evaluate the addressable market for new titles and identify trending genres and titles.

According to the Arcade Forecaster, which provides a 24-month outlook of market-level data, the premium console segment is expected to level off in 2019 due to a dearth in new releases and the growing popularity of free-to-play games like Fortnite and Apex Legends. However, the Arcade Forecaster shows robust gains in 2020 with the anticipated launch of a next-generation console from Sony and new titles currently under development.

“The launch of the Arcade Forecaster represents an exciting milestone in digital game research,” said Sam Barberie, VP of Business Development and Product of SuperData, a Nielsen company. “The pace of game innovation and player preferences has never been faster, and clients will now have a comprehensive understanding of how current trends are likely to affect the future performance of top console, PC and mobile games.”

In addition to markets, the Arcade Forecaster also projects the future performance of a growing list of individual titles to understand the singular effect of market movers like Call of Duty and Red Dead Redemption 2. The 12-month title forecasts give insight into the constantly evolving monetization trends in digital games by showing how much revenue came from full-game sales compared to in-game spending, which includes revenue from subscriptions and microtransactions.

In 2020, revenue from in-game spending on premium console is expected to contribute $4.9B to the $13.2B market, up 7% from $4.6B in 2019. Similarly, premium console revenue from full-game sales will grow 29% to $8.3B.

To simulate the future performance of titles and markets, the Arcade Forecaster uses individual and bulk-level transaction data collected from publishers, developers and payment service providers to build composite weighted averages based on historical patterns that include user growth-decay curves and average revenue per paying user. The forecasting models are revised and updated on a monthly basis to accommodate fresh data that includes announcements.

SuperData Arcade is the singular solution for comprehensive data on the digital games and interactive media market. As digital media becomes more interactive and personal, SuperData Arcade is the guide to understanding the next generation entertainment revolution across digital games research and interactive media intelligence. SuperData Arcade contains insights ranging from high-level trends to granular data and represents the world’s most robust and comprehensive quantitative insights on the vast and growing playable media market.

To learn more about SuperData Arcade Forecaster, please contact us.

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